How we find more winners…

In the competitive world of horse racing, determining the strongest contender involves more than just reviewing past performances. We can all spot a potential winner - And so can the bookmakers! To give us an edge, we have developed a number of different approaches combined over several years.

The journey to publishing the Racing List has not been easy. I will talk more in another newsletter about the trials and tribulations of trying to find winning angles in horse racing. However, after all the years of research, data analysis and pure trial and error, we finally have something we are proud of.

Since 2008, we have been trying to perfect the Racing List - Building systems, excluding horses, trainers and jockeys - We’ve even tried to just focus on key factors and hoped for a repeat chance of success, but for one reason or another, these approaches have not provided us with enough of an edge - Until recently…

The Racing List uses a tailored approach using an advanced method known as weighted scoring to analyse various factors contributing to a horse’s potential success. If you have never heard of it, then this article will walk you through the process of weighted scoring and how it helps identify the strongest horse in each race.

What is Weighted Scoring?

Weighted scoring is a systematic approach that considers multiple factors influencing a horse's performance. Each factor is assigned a specific weight based on its perceived importance, and scores are calculated to give a comprehensive evaluation of each horse. This method provides a more balanced and accurate prediction by incorporating a variety of performance indicators.

Key Factors and Their Weights

For our weighted scoring system, we consider over 40 factors - each with an assigned weight reflecting its importance to our decision making. Some of the more obvious ones are listed below (We won’t be sharing all the factors we use, because quite honestly - It’s taken years to find them for ourselves!)

  1. Recent Performance: Measures how well the horse has performed in recent races.

  2. Jockey Performance: Evaluates the skill and success rate of the jockey.

  3. Trainer Success: Considers the historical success of the horse's trainer.

  4. Course Conditions: Assesses how well the horse performs under current track conditions.

  5. Class and Weight: Looks at the horse’s class and assigned weight for the race.

  6. Speed: Analyses the horse's speed in previous races.

  7. Distance: Considers the horse’s performance over similar distances.

  8. Betting Market Trends: Reflects the market sentiment and betting trends.

  9. Pedigree: Reviews the horse's lineage and genetic potential.

  10. Days Since Last Race: Evaluates the freshness and rest period of the horse.

The Process of Weighted Scoring

Step 1: Collect Raw Data

We start by gathering raw data for each factor for all horses in a race. This data includes recent race results, jockey and trainer statistics, course conditions, class, weight, speed ratings, sectional timings, race distance, betting trends, pedigree, and days since the last run.

Step 2: Normalise the Data

Next, we normalise the data for each factor using the min-max normalisation formula: This step ensures that all factors are on a common scale, typically between 0 and 1, allowing for fair comparisons.

Step 3: Apply Weights

We then multiply each normalised value by its corresponding weight. For example, if a horse’s recent performance is normalised to 0.8 and the weight for recent performance is 25%, the weighted score for recent performance is: 0.8×0.25=0.200.8 \times 0.25 = 0.200.8×0.25=0.20.

Step 4: Sum the Weighted Scores

After applying the weights to all factors, we sum the weighted scores to get the final score for each horse. This final score represents the horse's overall potential, considering all factors considered.

Step 5: Identify the Strongest Horse

The horse with the highest final score is identified as the strongest contender in the race. This horse is expected to have the best overall performance based on our own analysis of all factors.

Example

Let's consider a simplified example with three horses:

  • Horse A: Normalised values: Recent Performance: 0.67, Jockey Performance: 0.5, Trainer Success: 1

  • Horse B: Normalised values: Recent Performance: 0, Jockey Performance: 1, Trainer Success: 0

  • Horse C: Normalised values: Recent Performance: 1, Jockey Performance: 0, Trainer Success: 0.5

After applying weights and summing the scores, we might find:

  1. Horse A: Total Score = 0.725

  2. Horse B: Total Score = 0.35

  3. Horse C: Total Score = 0.6

In this example, Horse A is identified as the strongest contender with the highest total score of 0.725.

Summary

Weighted scoring is a powerful tool in how we conduct our horse racing analysis, providing a detailed and balanced evaluation of each horse's potential. By considering multiple factors and their relative importance, this method helps the Racing List Team make informed decisions.

Over the course of our newsletter, we will mention and refer to weighted scoring. You could try it yourself.. Find the angles, the weighted scenarios or new factors to include for your own analysis. Right now, we are pretty confident about ours - This is how the Racing List was born.